The stimulus is working; why the poll numbers are down

via BCGAB

Suck it, Republicans:

Between 600,000 and 1.6 million jobs were created or saved through September as a result of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, according to a Congressional Budget Office report.

The data, released Monday, say the real inflation-adjusted gross domestic product was 1.2 percent to 3.2 percent higher than it would have been had the $787 billion stimulus package not passed in February. Also, the stimulus lowered the unemployment by between 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points, according to the report.

Yeah, 10.2 percent unemployment is awful and the Democrats need to pass another jobs bill right away or else. But this proves that spending equals growth equals jobs equals recovery. It's the ridiculousness of the corporate press and the Republicans that put this very basic economic notion into doubt, but don't hold your breath waiting for a retraction of all the red-baiting and concern-trolling we endured last February/March.

As Matt Yglesias points out, it shouldn't be surprising that Obama's poll numbers aren't that great. In fact, there's historical evidence for this.

One frustrating aspect of “horse race” coverage of the U.S. political system is that the people who insist on covering important policy debates as a kind of game are also pretty bad at analyzing the game.

Nor should it surprise anyone that 11 months of deteriorating economic conditions have taken a toll on Obama’s popularity.

Look at Ronald Reagan’s approval rating:


At the time there were probably lots of clever stories written about why Reagan was doing better or worse on whichever day. But looking back at things from 20 years later, the moral of the story seems to be pretty simple “recessions and giant scandals make presidents unpopular.” And of course they do!

So the next time you hear Doucheborough talking about how the numbers show Obama is tanking, remember he's looking at snapshots and trying to get you to tune in tomorrow for the political equivalent of "How'd the Celtics do last night?"

I'll also remind you of this post from last week, showing that the only place Obama is down is among Republicans. It used to be that a lot of them hated him. Now even more do.