Obama has 269 Electoral votes AT WORST

From 538: Taking all battleground states (states where the lead is less than 5%) out the Electoral count is 269 Obama, 163 McCain



If McCain wins EVERY battleground, it would be a 269-269 tie (that Obama would win in the house)

Now, if we allocate states based on current poll data, Obama picks up Virginia (4.4%), New Hampshire (3.4%), Ohio (2.4%), Florida (2.4%), and Nevada (2.1%).

Indiana is a tie and give McCain precarious wins in North Carolina (0.1%) and Missouri (0.4%) - niether of which is a given, and you come up with 338 Obama, 189 McCain


(maps generated at 270towin.com)